Update your beliefs with evidence. Visualize prior and posterior distributions, run A/B tests with probability statements instead of p-values.
P(Variant B beats Control A)
92.6%
There is a 92.6% probability that Variant B has a higher conversion rate than Control A.
Control (A)
Conversion rate5.09%
95% Credible Interval3.82% – 6.53%
PosteriorBeta(51, 951)
Variant (B)
Conversion rate6.59%
95% Credible Interval5.14% – 8.20%
PosteriorBeta(66, 936)
Based on a Beta-Binomial model with a uniform prior, there is a 92.6% probability that Variant B outperforms Control A. The expected conversion rate for A is 5.09% and for B is 6.59%. Computed via Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 samples from each posterior distribution.